Unusually Quiet 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season: El Niño Suppresses Storms Through Mid-September
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has proceeded more slowly than usual through mid-September, a notable development despite globally elevated ocean temperatures. According to an Associated Press report and data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, no fully developed hurricanes had formed in the Atlantic by this point in the season, while tropical systems remained relatively limited.
Meteorologists attribute the lull to the impact of a strong El Niño, which increases wind shear in the upper atmosphere and limits tropical storms’ ability to organize and develop into powerful hurricanes.
Why have storms declined?
Hurricanes require a combination of conditions to occur, including warm water, moist air and relatively stable winds across the atmosphere. But during 2026, strong wind shear and drier air helped break up many systems before they could fully develop.
Experts noted that warmer sea-surface temperatures alone are not enough to produce an active season, because the temperature difference between the ocean and the surrounding atmospheric layers plays an important role in fueling storms. As the atmosphere also warmed, some of the factors that typically help tropical systems intensify weakened.
The lull does not mean the risks are over
Despite the slow start, meteorologists caution against assuming that the season has ended early. The remainder of September and October could bring a sudden increase in activity, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, where storms can develop rapidly when the right conditions are present.
The National Hurricane Center is also continuing to monitor activity in the eastern and central Pacific, where tropical activity was more pronounced than in the Atlantic during the same period.
Image for illustrative purposes.
